19.01.2022 – 08:00
Federal Office of Statistics
Order backlog in manufacturing, November 2021
+1.5% in real terms compared to the previous month (calendar and seasonally adjusted)
Reach of the order backlog
According to preliminary information from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the real (price-adjusted) order backlog in the manufacturing sector was 1.5% higher in November 2021 than in the previous month after calendar and seasonal adjustment. The order backlog has thus risen steadily since June 2020 and in November 2021 reached its highest level since the statistics were introduced in January 2015. Since June 2020, companies in the manufacturing sector have consistently received more new orders than they have been able to process. A major reason for this is likely to be delivery bottlenecks for primary products. Compared to February 2020, the month before restrictions due to the corona pandemic began in Germany, the order backlog was 27.4% higher after calendar and seasonal adjustments.
Open domestic orders increased by 0.8% in November 2021 compared with October 2021, and open international orders increased by 1.8%. The order backlog for manufacturers of intermediate goods increased by 1.5% in November 2021 compared to the previous month. Among manufacturers of capital goods, it rose by 1.4%. In the consumer goods sector, the order backlog was 2.5% higher than in the previous month.
Range of orders on hand increased to 7.6 months
The scope of the order backlog has also increased further. In November 2021 it was 7.6 months in manufacturing (October 2021: 7.5 months) and has thus also reached a new high since the start of the time series in 2015. For manufacturers of capital goods, the range was 10.8 months (October 2021: 10.7 months) and for intermediate goods it was 3.9 months (October 2021: 3.8). In the area of consumer goods, it was 3.3 months, as in the previous month.
The range indicates how many months the companies would theoretically have to produce without new orders to process the existing orders with the same turnover. It is calculated as the quotient of the current order book and the average turnover of the past twelve months in the relevant economic sector.
Dossier on delivery bottlenecks in the Corona crisis
Delivery bottlenecks will slow down German industry in 2021. A new dossier from the Federal Statistical Office offers a data analysis on the connection between material shortages, incoming orders, production and prices in industry. The dossier available on the “Economic indicators” topic page of the Federal Statistical Office’s website thus clarifies the current situation in the Corona crisis and compares it with past economic cycles.
The different comparison periods must be taken into account in all reports on economic indicators. The focus of economic observation is the comparison to the previous month/previous quarter. From this, the short-term economic development can be read. The calendar-adjusted comparison with the previous year serves as a long-term comparison of levels and is independent of seasonal fluctuations and calendar effects. In the current corona crisis, the sometimes sharp declines and increases can lead to very different results in the previous month/previous quarter comparison and year-on-year comparison. In order to enable a direct comparison to the pre-crisis level, a comparison with February 2020 or the fourth quarter of 2019 will also be shown in all press releases on seasonally adjusted economic indicators for the time being.
The order backlog includes the total of incoming orders at the end of the reporting month that have not yet resulted in sales and that have not been cancelled. Backlog data are based on manufacturing backlog volume indices, seasonally and calendar adjusted using the X13 JDemetra+ procedure. The order backlog is recorded and evaluated in the structure of the “Classification of Economic Branches, Edition 2008 (WZ 2008)”. The order backlog and incoming orders are only surveyed in selected branches of the manufacturing industry.
The results on the order backlog in the manufacturing sector – also broken down by industry – are also available on the special page “Corona Statistics” on the website of the Federal Statistical Office, along with other indicators for classifying the economic consequences of the corona pandemic.
Detailed results can be found in the GENESIS-Online database (42155-0004 order backlog indices and 42113-0001 order backlog range).
The complete press release as well as further information and functions are available on the website of the Federal Statistical Office at https://www.destatis.de/pressemitteilungen to find.
business cycle surveys in the manufacturing sector,
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Original content from: Federal Statistical Office, transmitted by news aktuell