29.11.2021 – 20:15
Central Bavarian Newspaper
In the international arena there is such a thing as dormant conflict. The clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan could bear this label as well as the illegal annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine. A real solution is not in sight. The conflicts are simmering. Sometimes with more, sometimes with less military means. The 2015 nuclear treaty with Iran also belongs to this class of dormant, smoldering conflicts. The diplomatic work that had come about after many years of tough negotiations between the USA, China, Russia, France, Great Britain and Germany on the one hand and Iran on the other, was bound up with all sorts of hopes. The West hoped to be able to dissuade Tehran from the course of nuclear weapons development – and thus also to increase Israel’s security. The Iranian leadership, but also the Persian people, hoped that the endless sanctions would finally be lifted. In Tehran, when the historic agreement was signed more than six years ago, many people were dancing in the streets, but unfortunately the reality is sad and gloomy. Hopes for a deep détente and a reasonably normal relationship between the mullah regime and the West have largely been dashed. The process came to a complete standstill when ex-US President Donald Trump terminated the treaty for the United States in 2018. Instead of building sensible relations with Iran, the Trump administration preferred to rely on the North Korean ruler and even more on the Iranian archenemy Saudi Arabia. The latter has also contributed to the fact that the two powers in the Near and Middle East continue to be spider enemies and – for example in the Yemen conflict – indirectly wage war against each other when a new round of negotiations between the states involved in the nuclear agreement begins in Vienna , the hopes are not particularly high. It is highly uncertain whether the agreement can be breathed new life into. You have to try anyway. There is heavy diplomatic work to be done. Rapid progress is hardly to be expected. If at all, they are more likely to show up in the millimeter range and in months. The reason the knot is so tied is that Washington on the one hand and Tehran on the other have both reached dead ends. Ultimately, the United States is demanding that Iran take the first step, for example to abandon uranium enrichment and allow inspectors from the Atomic Energy Agency to enter the country unhindered. The Iranian leadership under the new ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raisi, on the other hand, is demanding that the US sanctions fall first. In this deadlock, the EU, which sits at the negotiating table with France and Germany, could play a key role. Unlike Washington, Paris and Berlin have a keen interest in normalizing economic relations with Iran. The country is a sleeping giant, so to speak, with enormous potential, huge oil and gas reserves and other raw materials. And Iran has enormous modernization and investment needs. For the future German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, however, the negotiations in Vienna are a lesson in realpolitik. It is one thing to insist categorically on the observance of human rights in unpleasant regimes in the opposition. Tough detailed diplomatic work to save the important nuclear deal with Iran after all, on the other hand, is a completely different challenge. German diplomats helped negotiate for twelve years until the agreement was finally concluded in 2015. Baerbock will also need staying power in the new office.
Central Bavarian Newspaper
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Original content from: Mittelbayerische Zeitung, transmitted by news aktuell